I love to read, but rarely get a chance to these days to do much more than scan Crunchbase, Mashable and a news feed or two. But a short while ago I got the rare opportunity on a long flight to read a book! And of all the reads I could have chosen, elected Nate Silver’s The Signal & The Noise – Why So Many Predictions Fail.

I chose that one because Nate had always intrigued me – from his ability to predict political election winners to what college baseball player would turn into a great pro. Plus I’m a geek for statistics and probability, it’s why I started Dasheroo.

There’s plenty of great material in the book, including solid reasoning of how the 2008 financial meltdown could have been avoided as well as predicting weather patterns. I enjoyed it all, but what stuck with me the most was the bifurcation of personalities into a ‘hedgehog or fox’.

I wasn’t aware until I did a little more research that this had been written about in the 1950’s by Isaiah Berlin, who cribbed it from Leo Tolstoy and Greek poetry. Silver explains that there are two main types of prognosticators: the hedgehog and the fox and reiterates Greek poet Archilochus’s musing “a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog one important thing.”

What does that mean? To me, it means that foxes tend to be self-critical, eclectic thinkers that consider many solutions and are willing to update their opinions when faced with new information or contrary evidence. Hedgehogs, on the other hand are more likely to have one big concept, idea or belief that they get behind like with pit bull tenacity. They’re typically articulate and very persuasive (sometimes bullying) as to why their idea is correct. For instance, the media often love hedgehogs as they make for great TV.

This principle resonated with me. After thinking about it, I started to categorize folks in one or the other bucket. Personally, I’ve found that I tend to gravitate more toward the fox persona, but I do appreciate the hedgehog mentality as well. There’s certainly a distinct clarity, drive and focus with the hedgehog that can be absent with the fox.

So who’s the better leader, a fox or a hedgehog? Bottom line, I think it’s valuable to build a team that respects each of these personalities – I think foxes need some hedgehog support and vice versa. And the type and stage of company is also important – I’d argue that foxes can make better leaders in early stage companies and start-ups, while hedgehogs take the upper hand in more structured businesses. Even so, I certainly wouldn’t be comfortable with a senior team made up of just foxes or only hedgehogs!

So which are you, and who do you think makes the best leader?

I’ll be writing an additional post or two about how to deal with each of these personas, but in the meantime let me know your thoughts – is it accurate to portray people as one or the other? What’s your experience? Let me know on this Startup Lessons Learned!